Evolution of the external debt of Developing Countries between 2000 and 2018

 1. Structure of external debt in DC

Let us first examine the structure of the DC’s external debt from the point of view of creditors (we have rounded off the figures provided by the World Bank
World Bank
WB
The World Bank was founded as part of the new international monetary system set up at Bretton Woods in 1944. Its capital is provided by member states’ contributions and loans on the international money markets. It financed public and private projects in Third World and East European countries.

It consists of several closely associated institutions, among which :

1. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD, 189 members in 2017), which provides loans in productive sectors such as farming or energy ;

2. The International Development Association (IDA, 159 members in 1997), which provides less advanced countries with long-term loans (35-40 years) at very low interest (1%) ;

3. The International Finance Corporation (IFC), which provides both loan and equity finance for business ventures in developing countries.

As Third World Debt gets worse, the World Bank (along with the IMF) tends to adopt a macro-economic perspective. For instance, it enforces adjustment policies that are intended to balance heavily indebted countries’ payments. The World Bank advises those countries that have to undergo the IMF’s therapy on such matters as how to reduce budget deficits, round up savings, enduce foreign investors to settle within their borders, or free prices and exchange rates.

concerning DC indebtedness in 2018):

and from the point of view of debtors:

 2. Evolution of DC’s external debt between 2000 and 2018

2.1 List of DC according to income

Population in the 135 Developing Countries in 2019: 6,438 million:

• In low income countries [1] in 2019: 668 million
• In middle-income countries [2] in 2019: 5,769 million

List of 29 low-income DC [3]: Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, North Korea, Erithrea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Uganda, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Syria, Tajikistan, Chad, Togo, Yemen.

List of the 106 middle-income DC [4]: Albania, Algeria, Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Belize, Benin, Bhutan, Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil, Bulgaria, Cambodia, Cameroon, Cap Verde, China, Colombia, Comoros, Congo, Costa Rica, Côte d’Ivoire, Cuba, Djibouti, Dominican Rep., Dominica, Egypt, Ecuador, Eswatini, Fiji, Gabon, Ghana, Georgia, Grenada, Guatemala, Equatorial Guinea, Guyana, Honduras, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Iran, Jamaica, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kiribati, Kyrgyz Rep., Kosovo, Laos, Lebanon, Libya, Lesotho, North Macedonia, Malaysia, Maldives, Morocco, Marshall (islands), Mauritania, Mexico, Micronesia, Moldavia, Mongolia, Montenegro, Myanmar, Namibia, Nepal, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Palestine, Papua-New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Russia, Sainte-Lucie, Saint-Vincent et Grenadines, Salvador, Samoa, American Samoa, São Tomé et Principe, Senegal, Serbia, Solomon (Islands), South Africa, Sri Lanka, Surinam, Tanzania, Thailand, East Timor, Tonga, Tunisia, Turkmenistan, Turkey, Tuvalu, Ukraine, Vanuatu, Vietnam, Venezuela, Zambia, Zimbabwe.

Table 1: Evolution of the debt stock
Debt stock
The total amount of debt
of the net transfer (total and public external debt) of DC between 2000 and 2018

Amount of public external debt of low-income countries:

• in 2000: $79 billion
• in 2018: $118 billion

Amount of public external debt of middle-income countries:

• in 2000: $1,173 billion
  
   with $427 billion for lower-middle-income countries
  
   and $745 billion for upper-middle-income countries
• in 2018: $2,816 billion
  
   with $1,031 billion for lower-middle-income countries
  
   and $1,785 billion for upper-middle-income countries

2.2 Some explanations

Table 1 bears on the period 2000-2018 [5], a stretch of time that includes debt relief measures implemented by public creditors (States of the North, the IMF
IMF
International Monetary Fund
Along with the World Bank, the IMF was founded on the day the Bretton Woods Agreements were signed. Its first mission was to support the new system of standard exchange rates.

When the Bretton Wood fixed rates system came to an end in 1971, the main function of the IMF became that of being both policeman and fireman for global capital: it acts as policeman when it enforces its Structural Adjustment Policies and as fireman when it steps in to help out governments in risk of defaulting on debt repayments.

As for the World Bank, a weighted voting system operates: depending on the amount paid as contribution by each member state. 85% of the votes is required to modify the IMF Charter (which means that the USA with 17,68% % of the votes has a de facto veto on any change).

The institution is dominated by five countries: the United States (16,74%), Japan (6,23%), Germany (5,81%), France (4,29%) and the UK (4,29%).
The other 183 member countries are divided into groups led by one country. The most important one (6,57% of the votes) is led by Belgium. The least important group of countries (1,55% of the votes) is led by Gabon and brings together African countries.

http://imf.org
, the WB, other multilateral regional banks) after the Third World debt crisis [6] that started in the 1980s.

Column 2 shows the evolution of the stock of total long-term external debt of all DC for which the WB provides data [7] (long term debt, debt owed and guaranteed by the governments of DC as well as debt owed by private companies in DC). Column 4 shows the evolution of the total stock of the long-term external debt owed and/or guaranteed by the governments of DC. Column 6 shows the evolution of the stock of long-term external debt of DC owed to the World Bank (IBRD and IDA).

Columns 3, 5 and 7 show net transfer on debt for the three kinds of stocks mentioned above.

The net transfer on debt is the difference between what a country receives as loans and what it pays back (capital and interest
Interest
An amount paid in remuneration of an investment or received by a lender. Interest is calculated on the amount of the capital invested or borrowed, the duration of the operation and the rate that has been set.
included, also called debt servicing). If the amount is negative, it means that for that year the country paid out more than it received.

2.3 Interpreting the table

We can distinguish between two periods, the first from 2000 to 2007-2008, and the second up to 2018.

First period: From 2000 to 2007-2008, total external debt stagnated then slowly increased from 2003 onward. From $1,695 billion in 2000 it rose to $ 2,433 bn in 2007. Public external debt remained fairly stable throughout, moving from $1, 252 in 2000 to $1,322 billion in 2007.

Simultaneously the net transfer (of total and public external debt) is largely negative, which means that DC pay back more than they borrow.

Several elements must be taken into consideration. Most DC had just experienced a major debt crisis and were still limited in what they could do. Although the main central banks’ interest rates
Interest rates
When A lends money to B, B repays the amount lent by A (the capital) as well as a supplementary sum known as interest, so that A has an interest in agreeing to this financial operation. The interest is determined by the interest rate, which may be high or low. To take a very simple example: if A borrows 100 million dollars for 10 years at a fixed interest rate of 5%, the first year he will repay a tenth of the capital initially borrowed (10 million dollars) plus 5% of the capital owed, i.e. 5 million dollars, that is a total of 15 million dollars. In the second year, he will again repay 10% of the capital borrowed, but the 5% now only applies to the remaining 90 million dollars still due, i.e. 4.5 million dollars, or a total of 14.5 million dollars. And so on, until the tenth year when he will repay the last 10 million dollars, plus 5% of that remaining 10 million dollars, i.e. 0.5 million dollars, giving a total of 10.5 million dollars. Over 10 years, the total amount repaid will come to 127.5 million dollars. The repayment of the capital is not usually made in equal instalments. In the initial years, the repayment concerns mainly the interest, and the proportion of capital repaid increases over the years. In this case, if repayments are stopped, the capital still due is higher…

The nominal interest rate is the rate at which the loan is contracted. The real interest rate is the nominal rate reduced by the rate of inflation.
decreased between 2000 and 2008, they were still high enough to attract investors towards Western countries and detract DC from harboring any intention to borrow. In this context, liquidities
Liquidities
The capital an economy or company has available at a given point in time. A lack of liquidities can force a company into liquidation and an economy into recession.
to be invested yield
Yield
The income return on an investment. This refers to the interest or dividends received from a security and is usually expressed annually as a percentage based on the investment’s cost, its current market value or its face value.
higher profits in countries of the North. For countries of the South, it is a time when capital flows out. Badly impacted by the structural adjustment
Structural Adjustment
Economic policies imposed by the IMF in exchange of new loans or the rescheduling of old loans.

Structural Adjustments policies were enforced in the early 1980 to qualify countries for new loans or for debt rescheduling by the IMF and the World Bank. The requested kind of adjustment aims at ensuring that the country can again service its external debt. Structural adjustment usually combines the following elements : devaluation of the national currency (in order to bring down the prices of exported goods and attract strong currencies), rise in interest rates (in order to attract international capital), reduction of public expenditure (’streamlining’ of public services staff, reduction of budgets devoted to education and the health sector, etc.), massive privatisations, reduction of public subsidies to some companies or products, freezing of salaries (to avoid inflation as a consequence of deflation). These SAPs have not only substantially contributed to higher and higher levels of indebtedness in the affected countries ; they have simultaneously led to higher prices (because of a high VAT rate and of the free market prices) and to a dramatic fall in the income of local populations (as a consequence of rising unemployment and of the dismantling of public services, among other factors).

IMF : http://www.worldbank.org/
policies demanded by their creditors, several DC made anticipated repayments to get out of the conditionalities enforced by official creditors (bilateral and multilateral creditors). This was the case for Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Nigeria, Algeria and Russia, countries that benefited from a rebound in the prices of commodities
Commodities
The goods exchanged on the commodities market, traditionally raw materials such as metals and fuels, and cereals.
from 2005 onward in order to use foreign currencies to repay their external debt.

Within 6 years, DC repaid $370 billion, twice the amount of the Marshall Plan
Marshall Plan
A programme of economic reconstruction proposed in 1947 by the US State Secretary, George C. Marshall. With a budget of 12.5 billion dollars (more than 80 billion dollars in current terms) composed of donations and long-term loans, the Marshall Plan enabled 16 countries (notably France, the UK, Italy and the Scandinavian countries) to finance their reconstruction after the Second World War.
. However their (total and public) external debt did not decrease.

Second period: From 2008 onward, the situation was practically reversed. Within 10 years, their external debt doubled and more: from $2,691 to 5,519 billion for their total external debt, and from $1,372 to 2,934 billion for their public external debt. The curve of net transfers was reversed, becoming positive. DC borrowed more than they repaid.

Several elements have to be taken into consideration. The main one is the impact of the subprime crisis. In 2007 the bubble of subprime loans burst in the United States. The crisis soon spread to all major Western banks, which are all interconnected. The world of finance was faced with a collapse of the whole system. The governments of Northern countries bailed out those banks, thus contracting a huge public debt, through quantitative easing policies [8] that were urgently launched by the main central banks such as the Federal Reserve
FED
Federal Reserve
Officially, Federal Reserve System, is the United States’ central bank created in 1913 by the ’Federal Reserve Act’, also called the ’Owen-Glass Act’, after a series of banking crises, particularly the ’Bank Panic’ of 1907.

FED – decentralized central bank : http://www.federalreserve.gov/
in the US and the European Central Bank
Central Bank
The establishment which in a given State is in charge of issuing bank notes and controlling the volume of currency and credit. In France, it is the Banque de France which assumes this role under the auspices of the European Central Bank (see ECB) while in the UK it is the Bank of England.

ECB : http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/Pages/home.aspx
. Central bank key interest rates reached historically low levels: from 4.75% and 4.25% in 2007, the Fed’s and the ECB
ECB
European Central Bank
The European Central Bank is a European institution based in Frankfurt, founded in 1998, to which the countries of the Eurozone have transferred their monetary powers. Its official role is to ensure price stability by combating inflation within that Zone. Its three decision-making organs (the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council) are composed of governors of the central banks of the member states and/or recognized specialists. According to its statutes, it is politically ‘independent’ but it is directly influenced by the world of finance.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/html/index.en.html
’s rates fell to 0.25% and 1% in 2009, then 0.5% and 0.05 % in 2015. Investors were relieved and then tried to invest their cash resources in the most profitable sectors. The debt of DC provided an interesting perspective. On the creditors’ side, profits to be drawn from DC are higher than what can be expected in a Western economy that is still in crisis. Borrowers benefit from lower interest rates than had been the case. Simultaneously, from 2008 to 2013, we experienced a “super cycle for commodities”, with prices reaching unprecedented heights. As a consequence DC increased their foreign exchange reserves thanks to their rising export revenues. With a favorable economic climate, eagerly courted by investors and pushed by the international financial institutions to resort to private financing to develop their infrastructure, DC were encouraged to take on massive debt, mainly by issuing bonds on the financial markets. For countries of the South this is a capital inflow period.

Translated by Vicki Briault et Christine Pagnoulle

The following chapters will examine the global and regional threats on the debt of DC.