Dow Jones futures rose modestly Friday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, on a strong March jobs report and record Tesla (TSLA) deliveries for the first quarter.
The stock market rally showed strong action last week, with the S&P 500 hitting a new high and the Nasdaq moving back to some key areas.
Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL) iPhone supplier Qorvo (QRVO) and Diamondback Energy (FANG) all flashed new buy points Thursday. Google stock and Microsoft reflect bullish action among tech titans. Qorvo stock is the latest chip player to blast out. Diamondback stock is one of many oil plays looking strong as crude oil prices trend higher.
Breakouts are among the many reasons to be more optimistic about the stock market rally. The S&P 500 topped 4,000 for the first time while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 reclaimed their 50-day lines. The Nasdaq still has one last test before investors can feel that the split market is turning into a broad market rally.
Google stock and Microsoft are on IBD Leaderboard. Google and FANG stock are on SwingTrader. MSFT stock is on IBD Long-Term Leaders. Tesla stock is on the IBD 50. Google and Qorvo stock are on the IBD Big Cap 20.
The Labor Department’s jobs report showed a nonfarm payrolls gain of 916,000. Economists expected to see nonfarm payrolls up 625,000 for the month, revving higher as easing coronavirus restrictions and multiple stimulus packages spur a hiring boom that’s expected to continue for several months.
Job gains for January and February were revised up by a combined 156,000. February’s initially reported 379,000 gain was revised to 468,000.
The jobless rate fell to 6% from 6.2%, in line with estimates.
Tesla reported first-quarter deliveries of 184,000, a new record. Analysts expected Tesla deliveries of 168,000. That’s more than double a year earlier, and 2% above Q4’s 180,570.
Tesla produced 180,338 vehicles in Q1, all Model 3 or Model Y vehicles. Tesla deliveries were almost entirely Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, selling 2,020 Model S sedans and Model X SUVs.
Tesla Model Y sales launched in China in January. Model Y sales reportedly were strong in the U.S.
However, competition is building for the newest Tesla model. Ford (F) sold 6,614 Mach-E crossovers in the U.S. last quarter, with nearly all of that in February and March. Volkswagen (VWAGY) began selling its much-cheaper ID.4 crossover in the U.S. in late March.
The VW ID.4 also began deliveries in China late last month. The Ford Mach-E has begun China production.
Will blowout Tesla deliveries trigger a TSLA stock revival?
Tesla stock jumped 7% last week to 661.75. But on Thursday, shares dipped 0.9%, sinking back below the 21-day exponential moving average.
Tesla Growth Drivers
In the second quarter, Tesla should continue to ramp up Model Y output in China while rivals step up production and release new models.
The next big Tesla growth expansions will come with the Berlin and Austin plants later this year. The Berlin plant will introduce the Model Y to Europe as well as cheaper Model 3 there, but could come at the expense of Fremont Model 3 production. The Austin plant is due to make the Model Y, Cybertruck and Semi, though the latter two may not be produced in volume until 2022, awaiting battery improvements.
The Biden infrastructure plan calls for expanded EV credits and a big expansion of charging stations. Tesla, which has hit the cap on federal tax credits, could be a big winner from that. But it could be months for such credits to be approved and go into effect.
Meanwhile, Tesla’s China rivals Nio (NIO) and Xpeng (XPEV) reported strong March deliveries on Thursday. Li Auto (LI) on Friday reported March deliveries of 4,900 vehicles, up 239%, with Q1 deliveries up 333% to 12,579.
Nio stock rose 1.7% on Thursday while Xpeng advanced 1.2% and Li Auto 1%, all closing near session lows.
Dow Jones Futures
Dow Jones futures popped 0.5% vs. fair value on Friday, off their initial highs following the jobs report. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 futures 0.2%.
That suggests that the Dow and S&P 500 would open at record highs Monday. The Nasdaq would move a little further above its 50-day line but remain below short-term March peaks.
Dow Jones futures trading halted at 9:15 a.m. ET on Friday It will reopen at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose a few basis points to 1.71%. Bond markets closed at 12 noon on Friday.
Coronavirus cases worldwide reached 130.80 million. Covid-19 deaths topped 2.85 million.
Coronavirus cases in the U.S. have hit 31.31 million, with deaths above 567,000.
Stock Market Rally Last Week
The stock market rally improved significantly, with Russell 2000 and Nasdaq stepping up and the S&P 500 clearing 4,000 for the first time.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.25% in last week’s stock market trading, holding near record highs. The S&P 500 index climbed 1.1% to a new high. The Nasdaq composite popped 2.6%. The Russell 2000 advanced 1.5%.
The 10-year Treasury yield hit a pandemic high of 1.77% during the week. But on Thursday the 10-year yield fell several basis points to about 1.68%, despite the ISM manufacturing index hitting a 37-year high. Rising Treasury yields have pressured the Nasdaq and growth stocks in recent weeks.
Among the best ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) rose 1.9% last week, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (BOUT) edged up 0.1%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) rallied 3.3%, with Microsoft stock the No. 1 component. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) jumped 4.7%, with Qorvo stock and many others fueling strong gains.
Reflecting more-speculative story stocks, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) jumped 6% and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) 5.8%. But both pared Thursday’s gains to close below their 21-day lines. Tesla stock is the top holding across ARK Invest’s ETFs.
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Qorvo Breaks Out
Qorvo stock rose 5.6% to 192.90 on Thursday, clearing a 185.96 handle buy point and hitting a new high. The buy zone runs to 195.15. The 5G and Apple iPhone play is one of several chip stocks to break out in recent days.
Apple stock rose 1.5% last week, finding support just above its 200-day line and reclaiming its 21-day. But it’s still far below its 50-day line.
Microsoft stock rallied 2.8% on Thursday to 242.35, rebounding bullishly from its 21-day and 10-week lines and finally closing above 240. Investors could buy MSFT stock here for those various reasons. The Dow Jones tech titan has a flat base with a 246.23 buy point.
Google Stock Flashes Buy Signals
Google stock rallied 3.3% to 2,129.78 on Thursday, capping a 5.2% weekly gain. The internet giant rebounded from its 10-week line and retook its 21-day line before clearing a downtrend and a three-weeks-tight entry around 2,114. Thursday also marked a record high for GOOGL stock. So there are multiple buying opportunities already.
Alphabet stock has an official flat-base buy point of 2,145.24, according to MarketSmith analysis.
Alphabet was this week’s New America feature.
Diamondback Stock Rebounds Bullishly
Diamondback stock leapt 10.5% to 81.22 on Thursday, making it the day’s best S&P 500 performer. The bullish bounce from the 10-week line also reclaimed the 21-day line and broke a downtrend. That offered multiple buy signals. FANG stock ended the week 12% above its 10-week line, so it’s getting extended. However, with the 10-week line rising to start next week, FANG stock may look better.
FANG stock was Thursday’s IBD Stock Of The Day.
Market Rally Analysis
The stock market rally had an encouraging week. The S&P 500 is at a new high, reflecting the broadening market rally. The Dow Jones is hovering at record levels. The Russell 2000 is back above its 50-day and 21-day moving averages after looking weak in the prior couple of weeks.
The Nasdaq rebounded above its 21-day on Wednesday in what was arguably a follow-through day. On Thursday, the tech-heavy index moved above its 50-day line. The final test is moving above its short-term March highs. The big-cap Nasdaq 100, with Apple, Google and Microsoft major weights, reclaimed its 50-day line and its March peak.
After a few weeks of tough trading, a number of stocks are breaking out and are holding up. The chip sector has come to the fore while tech titans such as Microsoft and Google are stepping up. Meanwhile, a number of oil names are looking strong. A few more steel names broke out last week, despite some declines Thursday. The broader housing sector, from builders to home improvement to home furnishing plays, is healthy. Travel stocks are consolidating after a healthy run-up.
One market segment remains sluggish: highly valued growth, including Tesla stock. While several rebounded for the week, most are well below their 50-day lines and usually their 21-day lines. They may need an extended period of rest, while some may not recover for years, if ever. The stock market looks forward, so don’t look back to old winners automatically.
It could be Tesla deliveries will spur a revival for TSLA stock and perhaps EV plays or even “story stocks” generally. But wait for them to form bullish bases and prove themselves all over again.
Investors should have stepped up exposure somewhat in the past week. The major indexes are looking healthier while breakouts are working. Don’t feel the need to rush in heavily. Let the market draw you in.
Have some diversity in the leading stocks that you own or watch. Focus on the very best stocks, but make sure you have names from a variety of groups. That will alert you to bullish moves in specific groups or sectors while limiting your risk of a group-specific sell-off. In others, don’t buy every chip stock that’s breaking out.
Always have an exit strategy. With the stock market rally at a key juncture and still prone to big swings, you have to have a plan for exiting a stock.
Please follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.
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